B.Tomic vs E.Gulbis

I think at this price Ernests Gulbis (#84) is worth a gamble to beat Bernard Tomic (#36).
I backed Tomic last week in Monte Carlo and watching him play against Dolgopolov it became clear why he has such a poor record on clay.
He still doesn't look comfortable moving around the court and hasn't mastered the slide. He also lacks the power to hit winners.
It means he has to rely on his opponents mistakes to win points and sometimes that can be very hard if the player at the other end of the net is playing well.
Tomic won his first main draw clay court match last week against Istomin. He has only ever played 14 matches on this surface and 11 of those have ended in defeat.
Of course it all depends which Gulbis turns up. He certainly has the power to hit through Tomic and if he's motivated then I expect him to win.
He hasn't been in great form but had a good run here in Barcelona in 2010 to reach the Quarter Finals so must like this venue.
The key is the odds. Anyone backing Tomic at 1.44 really is brave given his poor clay court record. Odds of 2/1 at Pinnacle Sports on Gulbis look very good value.